SA0126 · NewCo Financial Model · Spec 2026-07-15

Demand Engine v2 — turn the knobs, watch the machine

Revenue is the sum of three demand streams. Every slider below is a real model knob. Move anything and watch the consequences ripple: revenue, unit costs (volume brackets), margins, and the guardrails that say when scaling is safe. Reality is the starting position — the FLOOR preset must always equal actual order data.

Stream 1 · Network Stream 2 · DTC / Marketplace Stream 3 · Retail Calibrated to real orders Guardrail — computed, not a knob

01 · The cockpit — presets set the sliders; sliders drive everything

Stream 1 · Network no ad spend — the Academy activates

N1 · Network size60,000

N2 · Penetration0.83%

N4 · Revenue / buyer / yr$52

buyers 500units/yr 490 revenue $25.9Kcontribution $—

✓ FLOOR — matches real orders ($25,862/yr)

Stream 2 · DTC / Marketplace strangers cost money to win

Marketing budget / month$20,000

D2 · Cost per new customer (fully loaded)$45.50

D4 · Average order value$60

D5 · Repeat share / month5.0%

new cust/yr —orders/yr — revenue $—contribution $—

Stream 3 · Retail shelf space eats margin

R1 · Doors40

R2 · Velocity (units/door/week)2.0

Trade spend (% of net)8%

Retailer margin40%

units/yr —net rev $— contribution $—per unit $—

Total annual revenue (net of channel)

$—

■ Network $—■ DTC $—■ Retail $—

Volume → unit cost (COGS bracket)

— units/yr

<10Kbase price

10–20K−8% / unit

20K+−15% / unit

Total contribution & guardrails

$—

CAP 1 · MER — CAP 2 · nCAC — 1st-order —

Cockpit physics are simplified for feel (t0 product mix, blended unit costs, annualized ramps). The real engine computes exactly, per the frozen fixture set — but every cause-and-effect here is real: volume unlocks cheaper units for ALL streams · marketing budget buys strangers at a cost the guardrails police · trade spend and retailer margin come straight out of retail contribution.

02 · Where the sliders' output goes

Σ three streams→ COGS bracket selector→ Inventory · supplier deposits · payment terms→ 60-month P&L → cash→ Investment · trough · EBITDA · valuation · MOIC · IRR

03 · Every knob, its meaning, and where its number comes from

Knob	Name	What it controls	Source
N1	Network size	How many members/families the Academy can reach. Seed 60,000 — editable, to confirm with client.	Client
N2	Penetration %	Share of the network who buy. Today 0.83% (500 ÷ 60,000); ramps with activation programs.	Measured · t0
N3	Frequency	NewCo units per buyer per year. Today 0.98 (490 units ÷ 500 buyers).	Measured · t0
N4	Spend & mix	≈$52/buyer/yr today; whey + hydration = two-thirds of units.	Measured · t0
D1	Launch ramp	When the channel starts and how fast it grows (launch · first month · growth · steady state).	Plan
D2	Cost / new customer	Fully loaded: media + creative + agency + affiliates + tools (≈1.3× the ad platform number).	Benchmark
D3	Discount blend	Subscription share × discount + first-order offer.	Benchmark
D4	Spend & mix	Average order value and product mix for non-network buyers.	Benchmark
D5	Repeat share	Returning customers as an engine — repeat demand compounds with the base.	Benchmark
R1	Doors	Store count by cohort, each on the same ramp form.	Plan
R2	Shelf velocity	Units per door per week at steady state, by product.	Benchmark
R3	Products stocked	Which products retail takes (hydration + gummy yes; whey no). Per-product channel strategy lives here.	Plan
R4	Payment terms	Days until retailers pay — a direct driver of the cash trough.	Negotiated

Hard cap: 14 knobs. Adding one means removing one. Plus two engine parameters (supplier deposit %, sampling units) that are not demand knobs.

SA0126 · Demand Engine v2 interactive wireframe · SPEC-2026-07-15-DEMAND-ENGINE-V2 + FIXTURES-2026-07-15-DEV2 · cockpit physics simplified; the engine is bound by the fixtures, not this page.